After a horrible debate and subsequent three days during which Marco Rubio revealed himself to be a robotic politician with nothing to offer but canned talking points, RubioBot spent the past twenty–four hours doing damage control. Working hard to lower expectations heading into tonight, Rubio floated worst-case scenarios, despite offering assurances that “We’re going to finish strong here.”
But that was all far too little, far too late. Team Marco went public with its second-place Granite State aspirations last month, when it leaked its so-called “3-2-1 Plan.” Since then, Rubio’s campaign has continued to hype up New Hampshire #Marcomentum, even spinning his third-place loss in Iowa as a “win” that would propel him to a second-place “victory” tonight.
That kind of spin isn’t possible this time around. There’s no way to frame Rubio’s failure to meet even his own lowered expectations as a win. Here’s the truth: Rubio came up way short because his supporters bailed when they saw him for the empty, robotic politician that he is.
Rolling into South Carolina, where Rubio’s steadily polling in a weak, third-place position, Team Marco’s 3-2-1 plan has very quickly become an out-of-reach fantasy. Tonight’s finish — losing out to John Kasich — is decidedly not the establishment-lane consolidation that the folks at Rubio HQ were hoping for — and it’s a major setback for Rubio’s candidacy moving forward.
Here’s how the Rubio campaign turned #Marcomentum into blown expectations in the Granite State:
National Review: Rubio’s Team Plots Path to Nomination: Third in Iowa, Second in N.H., First in S.C.
CBS News: Marco Rubio bets on long-haul strategy to GOP nomination
The campaign expects Rubio to come in third place in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, and then finishing in first in South Carolina on February 20.Huffington Post: Don’t Let The Media And Marco Rubio Tell You He ‘Won’ By Finishing Third In Iowa
The spin is already happening. “This is the moment they told us would never happen,” Rubio said Monday night. “They told me we had no chance.” His campaign manager, Alex Conant, struck a similar tune. “This is a big night for us,” Conant said. “It’s probably a three-person race leaving here. If you don’t want Trump or Cruz to be the nominee, you better get on board with Marco Rubio.”
If Rubio turns in a robust showing behind the top two finishers in Iowa, this theory goes, he’ll be well-positioned to finish second to Trump in New Hampshire on Feb. 9, effectively finishing off establishment candidates Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Chris Christie.
New Republic: Marco Rubio’s path to victory has an underpants gnome problem.
The Hill: Rubio early-state strategy comes with potential risks
MSNBC: Rubio scrambles to adapt to a changing race
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Published: Feb 9, 2016